Escapist Pleasures and Escapist Dreams

The end of vacation brings with it the looming sense of a cliff ahead, or the approach of some kind of squall of normalcy that will obliterate the relaxation of a break. As with any good vacation, I have been able to take a step back from my everyday and consider changes big and small, from rank escapism to changes of habit that could start tomorrow. I found that in the quiet moments, I returned to one of my not-infrequent items of consideration: writing a novel. With the end of this trip bearing down on me – less than 24 hours remain – I began the exercise of wondering if that was something I could fit into my everyday life, or whether it would require a radical change of habits, focus, and perhaps even location.

On a similar literary note, Nora Roberts came up in conversation, my sister telling me that’s the sort of thing she would write were she to pursue a writerly career (she was also top-of-mind because she lives in a small town in rural Maryland). I think she had told me this a few years ago in a coffee shop in New York City, when I confessed that my ultimate dream of escaping the rat race would be to write airport fiction under an assumed name. This second occurrence made me look into Nora Roberts, whose work is of course omnipresent in bookstores everywhere and perhaps more familiar from my mother’s bedside table. I was astonished to discover just how prolific Roberts is – writing roughly 6 novels a year since the 1980s. Moreover she has an unromantic (ha!) view of the work, forcing herself to write six to eight hours a day, five or six days a week. She loves the process, she says, but finds it difficult to write, and so requires discipline to maintain her pace. I learned all this in an interview with her I found on YouTube (surprisingly few interviews exist for someone earning $60M a year, in my mind), where the interviewer also walked through the office where she presumably does most of her writing. A plain desk with a nice view to the woods outside the home she has lived in for 50 years….and to her left, a shelf staining under the weight of her many awards.

Roberts’ view made me consider isolation and its value, and my own preferences. My family all spoke last night about what sort of place we find idyllic, where we could live for all time as opposed to visit for a few weeks before we were driven insane. Our Airbnb for this week is a rambling old farmhouse on a large lot, abutting a beautiful stretch of river and marshland. We are sufficiently far upriver that the water is shallow and the traffic we are used to seeing further downriver simply does not exist. Nature is more present here than any place I have been in years – insects, birds, lizards, fish – the setting is beautiful, the quiet extremely soothing. Nevertheless, several of my family stated with total confidence they could not live in a place like this as it feels too isolated. C countered this place was idyllic and that driving to town or social settings was something many people are comfortable with. When it came to be my turn to weigh in, I was surprised to find I didn’t have strong feelings. The central question, of course, is what you do with yourself. I find myself deeply uncertain about what that is for me, stuck between the vacation escapism – rightly or wrongly I feel that an isolated, beautiful place like this would be perfect for writing – and the pragmatism of what I know now and value – access to amenities, walkability, mass transit, cultural sites. I perhaps feel more pressure to get this “right” given the increasingly concrete timeline for selling the current house, paired with the increasingly concrete reality that I have no idea where to go next.

I reflect on a piece I read not long ago that pointed out the extraordinarily wealthy have never worked so hard – that is, in the present day the tycoons (private equity mavens, hedge funds titans, tech gurus) are characterized by their extraordinary hours, which was not the case in past decades. If this relationship were to remain universal and my best way to improve my lifestyle would be, all else equal, to work more hours (something I am not convinced by, but let’s finish the thought process), what would I buy with my millions such that I could properly enjoy the few off hours I had? Travel is wonderful, but I have no desire to be hopping on private jets and join parties in the far-flung corners of the world. Indeed, people (beyond close family and friends) would have little role in filling those precious hours. The image is misty, but I suspect that a singular place would be the goal – somewhere comfortable, relaxing, fairly isolated (at least comparatively), and filled with things that bring us happiness, i.e. good food, good wine, good books, great outdoors, a fireplace, and a decent internet connection. A boat seems like a nice toy to have, but decidedly a boat and not a ship – if I want something with a crew I’m happy to go aboard something commercial. Honestly I would prefer a library, exceedingly comfortable couches, a warm fire with a loyal hound, and a dinner sufficiently compelling to call me away from whatever I am reading. Part of me recoils at this, wondering if it is rather too much like what might be found inside a Thomas Kinkade painting. And then of course the whole things becomes one-dimensional when I reflect the underlying lifestyle it is based on – one I have consistently rejected for more than a decade now. This adds the “constraint” of reality (that dreaded antidote to escapism) to the question of how to obtain the unobtainable, even as I struggle to define the unobtainable itself! What does it look like to proceed in smaller steps? Buy land and build a small house, with an eye towards expanding over the years? Proceed along a more normal course, but save every penny possible along the way in order to be able to splash out in the future? Constantly look for that perfect place and be ready to pounce when you find it, even if it leaves you in straightened circumstances? Hard to know. I suppose that for now I am happy to keep that escapist instinct alive and reflect on the fact that many people don’t become successful at their dream job until they are well into their regular career, and I have plenty of the latter to keep me busy!

Returning to the idea of dreams, locations, and living, as it applies to writers I formed a hunch that isolation is good, and decided to do some research on top-selling authors and more specifically where and how they write. Nora Roberts has been working 40 hours a week for 40+ years in her rural Maryland town. Patrick Rothfuss made the very compelling point years ago that if you want to be a writer, the best thing you can do for yourself is live somewhere extremely cheap – which in my mind means rural and isolated. Rothfuss himself lives somewhere in the back of beyond, Wisconsin, and his writing room is a pre-internet word processor on a spare desk in an empty room. Stephen King, the lord of airport fiction, writes every day (a quota of words rather than time, in his case) to maintain his productivity. Michael Connelly, too, writes every day in a room with blackout curtains so he has no sense of time or distractions from the task at hand. James Patterson appears to get up before dawn to outline and write, taking a break only to amble around the golf course. John Grisham goes so far as to actually publish his tips for writing, noting that his own habit is to wake up pre-dawn and be sitting at the same desk, at the same time, and not stopping until he has completed one page. Danielle Steel tries to be at her desk by 8am and will work for at least eight hours, but frequently more than 20 hours a day. Indeed, I am hard-pressed to find any living bestselling author who doesn’t have a serious routine for writing but then again that shouldn’t be surprising – it’s a job as much as a calling! Not surprising that so many of them speak dismissively of “the muse” and that the real art of writing is being at the coalface every day rather than waiting to find diamonds between the couch cushions. The fact that they are so hard at it, and so singularly focused, perhaps obviates the need for isolation. Nevertheless, I did note that comparatively few seemed to live or work in cities or densely populated areas, and many made specific mention of being able to get outdoors as part of their process.

It might also be worth noting that all of these people, barring perhaps Rothfuss, are of a certain age (and Rothfuss is far and away the least prolific on the list). They established themselves and their writing habits in pre-internet periods. “In an age of few distractions,” Gore Vidal once wrote in describing the Founding Fathers of the United States – writers in their 60s and 70s might not have had few distractions, but they undoubtedly had fewer than a first-time novelist does today. The internet and its overwhelming amount of non-information, combined with the inability to escape its reach (barring a willingness to embrace a truly hermitical existence) make distractions more potent than they have ever been. The need to put in the work undoubtedly remains the same, but the ability to do so and how one gets there will of course evolve with the times.

For now, I suppose it all comes back to “a room of one’s own.” Those of us already fortunate enough to have that are held back by precisely nothing. Conflating escapist dreams of a quiet, comfortable life in a beautiful location with a fancied career I suppose suited to the place is a logical error, even if it paints a wonderful mental picture to dwell on during vacation. The first step to successful writing is to write, and keep writing. The first successful step to achieving the rest of the dream is to define it in terms of what is and isn’t wanted, which can be done through trial and error if nothing else.

As such, as a lover of genre fiction, I will seek out a bunch of Gold Dagger award-winners to read them. And for real estate, I have a bathroom to re-do, but until that is done I can start winnowing down the zip codes in which I want to search.

Off to kayaking and the last 24 hours of vacation!

Another Day

A varied day of work and small pleasures. A line from a Colm Toibin essay made me smile:

I had planned to be in Seville for Easter 1991, mainly because I get very depressed in Ireland on Good Friday when the pubs close all day and the sky is low and the churches are full.

Today, too, was a day with a low sky and being here, rather than somewhere else, brought about a certain feeling of restlessness. Between calls with lawyers and answering simple questions, I was reading about the career of Gordon Ramsay, whose shine is (for me) beginning to dim. This in turn led me to lists of Michelin-starred restaurants and fancy restaurants in general. Amazing how vast swaths of the Earth have nothing, it seems, in the way of culinary quality while a few regions have all the best items – the traveler wishing to explore the edges of the map but retain some sense of culinary intrigue is either out of luck, about to spend many thousands of dollars on a trip, or lives in either Basque country or Japan.

After my escapist gustatory journey, I dove back into the piles of unread material around me. I have recently been stirred up by the arrival of two used books, soon to be mutilated so they can each donate a single page to my wall of favorite pages. The overwhelming sense that my wall should by now be impossibly full, that I am missing not just something but many things taunts and shames me whenever I engage in this exercise. I do my best to catch up with what I have missed, but then I find that the distance of even a little time (weeks, months) adds a certain something to the process. Headlines about child detainees in ICE detention (or concentration camps, if you prefer), forgotten book reviews that can now be read again for a new delightful turn of phrase, inspired thoughts left unrecorded.

Time, or lack thereof, has been on my mind of late. This is strange because in most ways I have never (productively) had so much of it – I am employed at a remote job in a role I can essentially keep to 9-5, and with C gainfully employed after a tough period of joblessness, we have a budget that gives us room to relax if not lean into our DINK status (weddings to plan, medical debts to pay, etc.). Then again, perhaps it is quite natural to have these sort of realizations only when you have the room to step back and take stock. I worry, or perhaps not worry so much as see, life barreling towards me. There’s not a thing wrong with that, and indeed I am fortunate that many of the events (most, I hope) in my near future are those I chose myself, quite happily. Wedding, my career arc, children, moving, and so on. As I was letting myself dig back into all the texts I mentioned above, I found myself returning to this idea of being to write authoritatively on something non-fiction. To me, the boring but powerfully symbolic topics of pensions came to mind almost immediately, and I indulged myself with a fantasy about a well-received article on such topic, written by me, appearing to many plaudits in the Inquirer. Even in my fantasy I know the subject is too boring to be consumed neat, so I watered it down with the premise of “I’m leaving Philadelphia, here’s why, and here’s why I was ALWAYS leaving” or something to that effect. I was snapped out of my smug reverie by the realization that this was, in fact, true. I have lived in this city for a decade, and I love it, but while for much of that time I was working on the premise of “some years yet” I don’t think there was ever a time where “forever, or as long as I can take it” was the plan. But was I therefore implicitly on a trajectory that I would have vigorously denied if asked about aloud? Was it always to be “fun single life downtown” followed by “married life in the ‘burbs”? Because I am equally sure that was never my goal, but I struggle to articulate, then, what the goal was for all that time.

This train of thought once again shows the undue influence of today’s materials. (Yet another problem – I’m becoming that predictable boor in the bar in Good Will Hunting who tries to impress people by regurgitating what he has learned most recently.) Perhaps it was the Ramsay clip where he moans about how he ought to receive his third Michelin star at age 33 (it ended up taking until he was 34). Colm Toibin, in the piece above, writes about going to Seville in 1991 – he had already written a novel inspired by his earlier travels in Spain, published in 1990. By my math he would have been around 34 when he wrote that. I saw a headline recently that the average unicorn founder started their company at age 34. I recall very distinctly having a conversation with a friend, probably seven years ago or so, about our planned career arcs. We were and are in very different fields, but we spoke with great confidence about how you need to be on track to meet your goals by 30, or else you won’t achieve anything much. I am now 33, and while I know that wrestling with this question is normal, I still cannot help but asking myself what it means when you aren’t where you think you would be, even if you realize you never had idea of where to go in the first place.

A long way to say I’m afraid of cognitive dissonance.

 

 

 

 

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I know that wrestling with this question is normal, I still cannot help but
asking myself what it means when you aren’t where you think you would be, even
if you realize you never had a fixed idea of where to go in the first place.

A long way to say I am afraid of cognitive dissonance.

The Top?

It’s always with the benefit of hindsight we see the top, which means that while we can tell (knowing) stories of what it was like to be there, we can’t really be sure of what it was like to experience live. We will try to capture it, looking at contemporary anecdotes, new stories, receipts, diary entries, whatever comes to hand, but like all time it’s lost once it becomes the past.

If “we” see the top with the benefit of hindsight, though, there are also a few individuals who see it live. One wonders how many of them are professional naysayers, those peddling bad news and coming apocalypses to the ever-present demographic excited by the incipient End Times. And yet some are in between.

The temptation, of course, is to go to those who have done it before. Jeremy Grantham’s call in early January that we are at the top of a bubble was electrifying in that it cut through the years of half-hearted “things sure are crazy,” usually uttered while shrugging, and reminded us that trees do not grow to the sky.

Grantham’s place in the investing pantheon is assured by his calls in 2008/2009 as well as earlier performances, but he deserves credit for his writing style as well. He might not be a Howard Marks, but he is clear and direct, and almost every sentence is worth pausing to chew. He argues that this summer is about the longest the market can sustain itself, as by that point vaccination rollout will be closer to ending than starting (recent developments with the J&J vaccine extend that timeline somewhat to late summer) and corresponding stimulus will wane. With fiscal solutions dropping away and the Federal Reserve already having spent most of its arsenal on accommodative policy, the music stops playing, and that’s that. (As an aside, if three anecdotes make a pattern, I’ve detected a disturbing pattern around the reemergence of Prince’s “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance” quote, used increasingly to defend a sort of failing conservatively mindset.) Grantham recommends emerging market and value stocks.

I also think back to Jim O’Neill at GSAM, who was more of a commodity strategist than anything but from his privileged perch made somewhat humdrum advice have weight. I remember reading (or perhaps re-reading) for several years in a row his advice “Sell in May, go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day” followed by charts demonstrating that this was, indeed, sound advice on average. The St. Leger Stakes is September 11th this year.

The environment certainly seems frothy. Valuations are high. The rise of cryptocurrencies and digital assets of all sorts either disturbs a person or makes them feel like a Luddite. SPACs branded by celebrities and sponsored by the usual crew of charismatic know-nothings are making a bundle for the insiders by selling the promise of the Next Big Thing to investors. The eagerness for large private companies is increasingly absurd, if not irrational, as so few seem to offer any hope of long-term sustainability. Uber is still unprofitable to the tune of $5 billion a year. Beyond the big technology companies, whose reckoning approaches ever so slowly, it can be difficult to find digital darlings whose future can survive close scrutiny with regards to either their business model or their desirability (or both).

Looking at the fundamentals presents a mixed picture (which, Grantham would argue, is right – it’s not about going from good to bad, it’s about going from amazing to less-than-perfect). Margin debt is at an all-time high. The ISM New Orders index is at a 17-year high. Initial claims and unemployment rates are coming down. The savings rate is artificially high and dissaving will goose expenditures. Pent-up demand for travel and leisure is spoken about everywhere. Congress may be able to pass a few pieces of blockbuster legislation in the next year or so, but divided government is likely to set in soon thereafter (and more to the point, set in with a potentially higher corporate tax rate).

Longer-term, the same old bugbears circulate in my head. Impacts of climate change. Demographic timebombs in terms of funding entitlement programs like Social Security. Healthcare and the cost of education. Housing. The government is doing the right thing by supporting people, but it’s difficult to determine just how the bottom can fall out when that tapers off. Real personal income excluding transfer receipts (one of my favorite data series) has been negative on a year-over-year basis for 13 months if you exclude a blip in October 2020 – the only previous times that has occurred were the Global Financial Crisis and the stagflation recession of the early 1970s. The former led to the current era of extraordinarily supportive monetary policy, the latter to extraordinary inflation and Reaganism. Hooray.

So what will I actually do. Am I writing purely for therapy? I hope not – extraordinary times call for deep reflection on one’s course of action and justifications for it. In my gut, I agree with Grantham’s primary argument – that at some point, you could look back at having sold today and reinvested, and you will be better off on the round trip. The question this begs is when to come back into the market. I’ve come across many clients who sold at a local peak and were never able to get back in, because while they were happy to say “this is too pricey” they weren’t able to say “and this is when I will get back in”. I am not nearly old enough or wealthy enough to be able to shrug off being out of the market for years – I need to compound my returns, and invest more to compound, for several decades at least in order to get where I want to go. The discipline of investing is doing so regardless of what the current environment, knowing that over lengthy enough time periods you will come out ahead. As I sock away my savings every pay period, it has to go somewhere, even if that somewhere is – for the time being – nowhere. If one were to sell, say, half of everything in retirement and other tax-deferred funds, when would you get back in? S&P 500 P/E multiple below the 75th percentile? 50th? A dividend yield greater than that of the inflation rate? Greater than the TIPS spread? After 12 months, regardless of what has happened? This is the tension I cannot resolve.

St. Leger’s Day is probably as good a day as any. Monday is May 3rd. Let’s see about clearing some of the dead wood out of various accounts, leaving it in cash, and putting Jeremy’s words to the test.

2021 and Beyond

An interesting few weeks.

If you had asked me before the election if there was a chance that thousands of disaffected Trump supporters would attempt to storm the Capitol, I would have said yes. If you had asked me the likelihood they would penetrate security and enter the building, I would have said almost nil. This was based on presumptions about the ability of the various arms of the security apparatus working well both individually and together. Even as I type that out, I recognize that the past few decades have not exactly been a rousing endorsement of support for that assumption.

If it were not for the bloodshed, I would be tempted to file this away as more a Mathias Rust-type incident than the British burning of Washington D.C. in 1814. The looming symbols of power are rarely so well protected as we think against the bizarre one-off events that history throws at them. The pictures of the crowd that stormed the Capitol showed what appeared to be a bunch of Waco cosplayers and alien abductees decked out in the latest polyester patriot-wear, intermixed with a Saturday afternoon Wal-Mart crowd. As such I have a hard time believing that if their attack had been planned rather than incited by the President, that they could have held onto the Capitol for longer than the 4 hours they did. Cartoonish and utterly ineffective, they could not have played the part of the unruly, uneducated mob better if they had been paid to do so. The symbolism will live on, although one hopes for more immediate repercussions both for the insurrectionists and for those who directly and indirectly egged them on.

Of course, people died. One Capitol Police officer, killed in the line of duty. One protestor (or more accurately, insurrectionist), shot by police, but ultimately killed by the lies fed to her by a megalomaniacal demagogue. He should be buried at Arlington; it should be made clear to the public that she (an Air Force veteran) never can be. Three others died of medical emergencies during the chaos.

Almost universally, the storming of the Capitol has been compared to the widespread Black Lives Matter riots over the summer in that black protestors and their allies were far more rigorously (and sometimes brutally) contained. I don’t think it bears much scrutiny – there is too much symbolism at work in D.C. and the he-said-she-said regarding who did or did not request National Guard support during the vote certification is already well underway. In particular, Trump himself wields so much power in the stationing of forces in and around D.C. that the fix was in (as evidenced by the fact that Pence, not Trump, took charge of the developing security response). It is still a fair question – if the situation was reversed, and President Hillary Clinton had been urging a crowd of mostly black supporters, some of whom were armed, to “stop the steal” and unleashed them towards the Capitol, would the outcome have been different? Quite likely. Would the set pieces have been different? Hard to say, but I think not.

I’ve been reading a book of essays by Darryl Pinckney, including one on the Million Man March (many hundreds of thousands of people) which has been a timely contrast to the events at the Capitol (thousands of people, perhaps tens of thousands in rally stage). If nothing else, it is nice to see a reminder that large, peaceful marches can – and should – be taken for granted in the nation’s capital, and that its symbolism will, over the span of history, be seen as positive. There might be another stain on that reputation as of today, but we are not perfect, and part of the beauty of our system is that when the worst happens, we can hold fast, take the strain, and then come to grips to fix the problem.

Behind the Million Man March was Louis Farrakhan, a man who – to this day – is clearly bent on self-promotion and using any means necessary to make sure his star is in the ascension, even (or perhaps particularly) if is at the cost of denigrating specific groups. Behind the Save America Rally to Storm the Capitol was Donald Trump, the same kind of man. The former gathered together a group of historically trampled people (black men) who were being relegated the stereotype status of criminals and consigned to slums and prisons. Pinckney’s essay separates Farrakhan’s efforts and history from the larger messages to be found in the March for black men. Can we do the same with Trump and his insurrectionists? Some parallels are not to be found – the peaceful assembly of the Marchers directly repudiated the image some Americans held of them, and was one event among many to carry a decades old message, racial equality, forwards. From the start, Trump’s rally was built on a platform of outright lies and wishful thinking that used anger as its motivating force, and reinforces the negative image many already had of them. More to the point, Trump could hardly have less in common with the group of people attending his rally, save perhaps their affection for Donald J. Trump. If the Save America Rally had stayed peaceful, however, could we have found any message there? Certainly, that people will believe the lies told to them by people in power – or as part of the old adage has it, “You can fool some of the people all of the time”. But I wonder, as the country at large waits to see if this is the end of Trumpism, if there is enough of a single, underlying cause to sustain that terrible elan.

Later in his book of essays, Pinckney writes about his experiences on the streets of Ferguson, Missouri in the aftermath of the killing of Michael Brown. In the company of a minister who has taken a leadership role among the protestors, months after the event itself but as protest continued, he records the minister repeating words of Dr. King – “Riots are the voice of the unheard.” That might be, unpleasant as it is, the answer to the question. To apply Dr. King’s words to a group of violent white people (and I have yet to see a single picture of a person of color storming the Capitol) makes my stomach and face twist at this apparently gross inversion. My first instinct is to dig into the difference between a riot and an insurrection. That quickly leads nowhere, however, as the legal screws are continually being tightened and loosened on this very topic in different ways at different times in different places. The questions is why they did what they did, not what to call it, because if we try to know why maybe we can try to cut through the noise and understand if we should expect to see more of it.

To go back to Dr. King’s words, what did the insurrectionists think wasn’t being heard? The “truth” behind all their lies, presumably. All the groups that made up that crowd – and I’m curious to see who they were as more are rounded up and charged – are girded in ignorance. A diet of repeated lies poisoned them against the Constitution and the law. But why were they so willing to listen? Presumably, despair and possibility of release from it. It wasn’t surprising to me to see quite a number of religious icons at Trump’s rally and the ensuing scenes of violence, as evangelicals have been among his most loyal supporters. No wonder, perhaps, because the stories are fundamentally the same – invisible, implacable forces of evil (the devil/the deep state) are at work on society, but only the righteous who open their eyes to the truth (Jesus/Trump) and spread the word about it can eventually gain salvation (heaven/Trump 2020 and ensuing changes). Evidence is besides the point, this is a test of faith. Of ideological purity. The physical world may press upon you with its facts and figures, its logic and reason, all of which can make you despair. But there is a greater reward in the future, if only you can hold on to that faith, a reward that will change everything and grant you true, eternal happiness. Ecstasy. For the true believers in the mob who weren’t evangelical, the pattern still works – the various conspiracy theorists and hate groups all have their own truths the world can prove to be wrong, which the deep, abiding faith of that community must overcome to reach the promised land where their truth wins out and they bask in eternal praise among the righteous.

Why the despair that drove them to these beliefs and communities in the first place? All of a sudden, we’re back in 2016. Old stories about the rust belt, the loss of middle class jobs, stagnant real wages, and infrastructure and education systems struggling to keep pace. To be sure, there are (and always will be) individuals among the insurrectionists for whom all this reasoning is irrelevant because they want power. They want to be set over other people, and are happy to do it within the law, but when they feel the law has stopped this from happening then the law be damned. Already there are plenty of commentators seizing on the racial angle of this, but I think they might have the wrong end of the stick, at least in part. I read, years ago, a fascinating study done by a group of economists to how wealth determines preferences about equality. (I’ve always though the answer to that question is summed up in the quote by, I believe, John Taylor, or perhaps Calhoun – “I am an aristocrat – I love liberty, I hate equality.”) The economists gave participants in the experiment different amounts of money, something like a few dollars up to a few hundred. They then asked people about redistributive policies for this little “society” they had built. Interestingly, the group that was most firmly against redistribution to partially correct the unequal wealth distribution was not the richest group, but in fact the second poorest (I believe the study divided them into quintiles.) The given explanation was that if redistribution was enacted, the poorest group would be lifted up and now be equal to the second-poorest group. That is, no longer would the almost-poor be able to say to themselves that they were still a cut above the truly impoverished, now they would be their equals at the very bottom of the wealth ladder. They attached value to not being at the bottom, to the extent of valuing that relative position at the expense of a policy that would increase their absolute wealth. Fascinating.

Before the coronavirus pandemic shut the world down, the groups that, in my mind, Trump supporters most despise were doing their best ever economically. The headlines were (understandably) about the many outrages and injustices still being perpetrated, but on average that gap between this bottom group of people of color and those one step above them – I suspect whites with high school educations in areas with few to no public services or safety nets – had narrowed. As the middle class was hollowed out and people plunged into the economic abyss, they saw racing up to meet them the groups that for decades or even centuries they had told themselves, that they knew in their bones, were their “inferiors.” No longer. All the disinvestment that took the wind out of the middle class over the decades put them on equal footing with that lowest qunitile, and that was that. Whether inspired by deeply perverted belief systems or in response to human behavior heuristics, and unable to put a policy in place to sufficiently reverse it (despite Trump-era policies), this group built a vein of anger and resentment ready to be tapped.

How can that vein be bled dry? It probably can’t, other than ensuring that we starve this cohort of new entrants. Public education, job training, and stronger social safety nets can all divert younger Americans from a potential future as a rioter. Trump is disgusting in part because of his naked opportunism and willingness to tap into an anger he does not fully understand, but there are plenty of other politicians who will do it. Moreover, both parties have their hand in the terrible policy mix that has produced the remarkably awful outcomes of the past 40 years (although it’s hard not to view Reaganism as the first and worst mover). There are simply too many Americans for us not to have militia members with bizarre ideologies waiting in the woods for the apocalypse. There will always be prophets and conspiracy-theorists. The internet has, undoubtedly, made it easier for that one strange local to band together with like-minded fellows around the world rather than locally, which gives them numbers and impetus they would never have otherwise had. But setting these poor souls to one side, the best antidote is to look to our schools and ourselves, and do the hard work necessary to understand why we should be lifting one another up, working together, listening to one another, and holding our public servants to the highest standard.

I don’t know whether the Biden inauguration will draw more violence – I hope not – but I do hope it provides more than a return to normalcy. We must be clear-eyed about the past to build a better future, and uncompromising to improve our country. Criminal justice reform is a hot policy area, and much of the conversation is around how the punishments don’t work, but more to the point criminalizing activity that is almost impossible for its perpetrators to escape from (the “school-to-prison pipeline”) because of societal structures is insane. An insurrectionist is not a drug dealer, but as the wheels of justice begin to turn I believe it is worth asking how we could have helped those who did not attack the Capitol, but share many beliefs with those who did, five, ten, or twenty-five years ago. How could we have helped them see through the lies, avoid the despair? Grinning while we slam the door to their prison cell will be satisfying in the moment, but we aren’t closing the door to the larger problems, and I fear that those problems are becoming too large to easily correct.

Coronavirus

Amazing how the long-feared global pandemic, much written about, treated with many screenplays, joked about among friends, has come to pass with such a shrug.  I write this knowing that I am fortunate enough to be immunized (ahem) against its effects to a greater extent than many, being a remote worker whose industry – from what we can tell in these early days – is essentially unaffected (ignoring second-order impacts) by the spread of the virus.  The absence of an image to come back to – no burning rubble on the ground, or traumatized people fleeing, or scarred or disfigured victims laying singular in hospital beds – makes this feel almost like a school fire drill.  Tedious, taking away from the usual day in a way that is simultaneously freeing and bothersome, but not harmful.

I suppose for all the rhetoric around coronavirus – and certainly the writers of copy have busy weeks in front of them – it still seems remote or outrageous, if not self-righteous.  “Doctors are being forced to choose who lives or dies” – doctors do that every day anyway, we call that organ transplants.  Bioethics is a very real and well-developed field.  “The working poor and wage earners have no safety net, we have to help them.” – they haven’t had one in decades, if ever.  We’ve been talking about helping them for years, not least in all the gig economy editorials.  “The healthcare system isn’t prepared for this, it’s being run too much like a business and we are capacity constrained.”  Again, this isn’t a revelation, it’s a matter of scaling up all the small, ignored warnings over previous decades.  “Old people”, “young people”, “sick people”, “poor people” – the usual suspects to be the tip of the spear when it comes for society to suffer are experiencing the usual gut-wrenching choices.  There must be dozens if not hundreds of Cassandras out there shaking their heads, likely to busy dealing with the crisis to spare time for an “I told you so” but that’s the usual way of things anyway.  I don’t hear anything about long-term solutions, just a bien pensant “do whatever it takes to keep things afloat for now.”  Can’t we support that but also be bold enough to seize the chance to fundamentally change anything?  There was an interesting piece in the New York Times, less provocative than the title suggested, about how to value responses to healthcare emegencies.  If we shut the country down for two weeks, but that costs ~10 million people their jobs with the expected ripple effect on the economy, is that worth it?  If a human life is worth around $10 million, per the actuaries, a crisis we are paying $1 trillion to stave off must save at least 100,000 lives.  From my reading that seems in the realm of possibility.  So we’re doing the right thing now, but I mourn slightly for all the right things we won’t do afterwards, even as we stare down the extra $1 trillion of debt to try to pay off.

The market is cratering, and as usual we are measuring from the previous peak, even if before valuations were making people sweat.  The drop on the roller coaster looks fun from the ground but going through it is a hell of a thing.  If you’re fortunate enough to have cash to invest, or a house to refinance or borrow against, complaining about the drop is sort of like the roller coaster rider complaining to someone who can’t afford the cost of the tickets to the theme park or take a day off work to go.

All in all, a good time to reflect and appreciate those who, voluntarily or other wise, are rolling up their sleeves to get to work for the next several months.  I hope that in the meantime the rest of us can ignore the escalating numbers on the screen and think about how to fix the system after this is over so it’s less vulnerable the next time around (and I don’t mean just building an extra few thousands ECMO machines).  The silver lining to all this is that, as I think I wrote previously, the economy is the number one determinant of whether an incumbent president is reelected, such that Trump didn’t look especially vulnerable.  That’s out the window now, and Joe Biden’s chances are probably the best they’ve been in the past four years, and not just because he’s got the nomination on lock.

Keep your fingers crossed, and wash your hands afterwards.

 

 

Vidal

It must be more than a year since I picked up Gore Vidal’s  United States, a collection of his essays published from 1952 to 1992, in a used book shop.  I was looking for something with style, even to the extent of form over substance, when the book (tome could be appropriately used) caught my eye.  I had first become aware of Vidal in college, when a roommate showed me his televised clash with William F. Buckley, Jr., during which Vidal called Buckley a “crypto-Nazi” and Buckley responded by calling Vidal a “queer” and threatening to hit him, all done in the most effortlessly wealthy Mid-Atlantic accents one could wish to hear.  Minor research demonstrated Vidal’s place as a novelist-turned-cataloguer of the republic whose style alone made him necessary reading.  As Vidal died not long thereafter, however, I never had the chance to discover a current piece that might lead me into his back catalog.  Indeed, not long after I encountered Christopher Hitchens, once cited as the next incarnation of Vidal but for their ferocious falling out over the Iraq War.  As much as we could have used Vidal’s voice (or at very least his piercing wit) over the past years, the ever-building wave of information kept me from really considering his material until United States leapt off the bookshelf.  At $12 for 1,200 pages, it was a no-brainer.

This isn’t a space to review a book released in 1993.  I imagine, in fact, that I could find such a review were I to poke around a little, but I don’t (yet) want to burden my primary enjoyment of the book with an attempt to judge it on deeper merits, because the key point is: I adore Vidal’s style.  He would likely discard me as a mere underliner, noting the best bits without properly reflecting on the complete message, but as one of his consistent complaints is the diminishing quality of the American education, I hope he would forgive me from collecting here the wonderfully polished and impactful writing that is his legacy.  It’s a long list.  Note that I add the year of writing in parenthesis to make clear how little (for the most part) the world has changed!

“It is a poor period indeed which must assess its men of letters in terms of their opposition to their society.” (1953)

“Much of the despondency and apparent confusion in the world of peripheral letters today derives partly from the nervous, bloody age in which we live and partly from the hunger for the absolute which, in our own immediate experience, delivered two great nations into the hands of tyrants, while in our own country the terror of being man alone, unsupported by a general religious belief and undirected by central authority, has reduced many intellectuals either to a bleak nihilism or, worse, to the acceptance of some external authority (Rome, Marx, Freud).” (1953)

“At such moments, in such works, the human drama becomes so unbearably intense that time and the sea are blotted out and only the human beings are illuminated as they cease, through the high magic of art, to be mere residents in a time which stops and become, instead, archetypes – elemental figures like those wild gods our ancestors peopled heaven with.” (1953)

“A profound tolerance is in the land, a tolerance so profound that it is not unlike terror. One dare not raise one’s voice against any religion, idea or even delinquency if it is explicable by a therapist. I suspect that much of the American’s hatred of Russia and Communism is simply a siphoning off of other irrational dislikes which, blocked by the stern tolerance of the day, can find expression only in Communist-baiting. I do not propose that we return to the bad old days of holding people responsible for inherited characteristics. Yet I should like to have tolerance learned from within and not have it imposed from without.” (1958)

“We are none of us hedgehogs or foxes, but both simultaneously.” (1960)

“The thought of people sitting at home watching other people talk is profoundly sad. But that is the way we live now, electronic villagers tuned in to the machine if not to the pundits.” (1965)

“…no one ever lost a penny underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” (1973)

“…her prose surged with vulgar invention and powerful feeling of the sort that cannot be faked.” (1973)

“A peculiarity of American sexual mores is that those men who like to think of themselves as exclusively and triumphantly heterosexual are convinced that the most masculine of all activities is not tending to the sexual needs of women but watching other men play games.” (1973)

“Whether or not the Professor’s [McLuhan] engaging generalities are true (that linear type, for centuries a shaper of our thought, has been superseded by electronic devices), it is a fact that the generation now in college is the first to be brought up entirely within the tradition of television and differs significantly from its predecessors. Quick to learn through sight and sound, today’s students often experience difficulties in reading and writing. Linear type’s warm glow, so comforting to Gutenberg man, makes his successors uncomfortably hot.” (1967)

“Unhappily, the novelist, by the very nature of his coarse art, is greedy and immodest; unless he is read by everyone, he cannot delight, instruct, reform, destroy a world he wants, at the least, to be different for his having lived in it.” (1967)

“One interesting result of today’s passion for the immediate and the casual has been the decline, in all the arts, of the idea of technical virtuosity as being in any way desirable.” (1967)

“Of course he knows his book is not very interesting to read, but then life is not very interesting to live either. Hopefully, as Professor Halperin would say, the book will self-destruct once it has been ritually praised wherever English is taught but not learned.” (1976)

“But then, as we have always heard (sometimes from the French themselves), the French mind is addicted to the postulating of elaborate systems in order to explain everything, while the Anglo-American mind tends to shy away from unified-field theories. We chart our courses point to point; they sight from the stars. The fact that neither really gets much of anywhere doesn’t mean that we haven’t all had some nice outings over the years.” (1974)

“I am not exactly sure what he means by realism. After all, the Greek myths that he likes to play around with were once a reality to those who used them as stuff for narrative.” (1974)

“Personally, I find it somber indeed to think that individual personality goes on and on beyond zero, time. But I am in a minority: this generation of Americans is god-hungry and craves reassurance of personal immortality.” (1974)

“But then to be middle class is to be, by definition, frightened of losing one’s place.” (1980)

“[Thomas Peacock] possessed negative capability to a high degree. In this instance, he may well be saying what he thinks at the moment, perfectly aware that he will think its opposite in relation to a different formulation on the order, say, of certain observations in Jefferson’s memoirs which he reviewed in 1930. Peacock was absolutely bowled over by the mellifluous old faker’s announcement that between “a government without newspapers, or newspapers without a government” he would choose the latter. This is, surely, one of the silliest statements ever made by a politician; yet it is perennially attractive to – yes, journalists. In any case, Jefferson was sufficiently sly to add, immediately, a line that is seldom quoted by those who love the sentiment: “But I should mean that every man should receive those papers, and be capable of reading them.” The last phrase nicely cancels all that had gone before. Jefferson was no leveler.” (1980)

[Quoting Thomas Peacock] “Voltaire warred against opinions which sustained themselves by persecution.” (1980)

“…it is unlikely that [he] will ever be much read except by those solemn embalmers, the Specialists in English Lit…” (1970)

“They knew that literature was (let us use the past tense) never a democracy or even a republic. It was a kingdom…” (1970)

“Logan Pearsall Smith was born October 18, 1865, the son of a wealthy Philadelphia Quaker who, rather abruptly, left the family glass business and become an evangelist, preaching the Higher Life. Then, as abruptly, inspired by venery, he quit preaching…After Harvard and Oxford, Logan married literature and lived happily ever after, with occasional lapses into a kind of madness, the inevitable fate of one who has been denied not only the word processor but the Apple home computer in which to encode Thoughts.” (1984)

“No respectable man of letters had taken on the American system since Thomas Paine, who was neither American nor respectable.” (1983)

“Obviously, there is a great deal wrong with our educational system, as President Reagan recently, and rather gratuitously, noted. After all, an educated electorate would not have elected him president.” (1983)

“According to the  Daily Mail, the last man on earth died in 1986, clutching to his dehydrated bosom a portrait of Margaret Thatcher. According to the New York Post (an Australian newspaper whose editors are able to do simple sums), the human race will be dead by century’s end due to rabid homos and drug takers (mostly black and Hispanic and viciously opposed to prayer in America’s chaste bookless schools).” (1987)

“Of Wilde’s essay “The Soul of Man Under Socialism,” Ellmann tells us that it “is based on the paradox that we must not waste energy in sympathizing with those who suffer needlessly, and that only socialism can free us to cultivate our personalities. Charity is no use – the poor are…right to steal rather than to take alms.” On the other hand, Wilde was wary of authoritarianism, so often socialism’s common-law helpmeet. In the end, Wilde veered off into a kind of anarchy; and defined the enemy thus: ‘There are three sorts of despots. There is the despot who tyrannizes over the body. There is the despot who tyrannizes over the soul. The is the despot who tyrannizes over the soul and body alike. The first is called the Prince. The second is called the Pope. The third is called the People.'” (1987)

“Cardinal Newman, writing of their common day, said, “The age is so very sluggish that it will not hear you unless you bawl – you must first tread on its toes, and then apologize.’” (1987)

“At seventy-two, [W. Somerset] Maughham went to Vevery, in Switzerland, where a Dr. Niehans injected ageing human organisms with the cells of unborn sheep, and restored youth. All the greats came to Niehans, including Pius XII – in a business suit and dark glasses, it was said – an old man in no hurry to meet his Jewish employer.” (1990)

“Ashden purrs his admiration for Kear: ‘I could think of no one of my contemporaries who had achieved so considerable a position on so little talent.'” (1990)

“By Elsie, there were two daughters: one became a nun and never saw [Ford Maddox] Ford again; the other did not become a nun and never saw him again.” (1990)

“Since the best writers have nothing to say, only to add, Ford said it all at once and so was not left with those second thoughts – inspired blots – that ultimately add the highest interest.” (1990)

“The dust-jacket of The Durrell-Miller Letters 1935-1980, edited by Ian S. MacNiven, shows three protagonists sprawled in a shallow wine-dark sea – Lawrence Durrell, Henry Miller, and Henry Miller’s numinous cock. Needless to say, it is the third that not only rivets attention but commands nostalgia and, well, let us be honest, pity and awe.” (1988)

“To the end of a long life, [Edmund Wilson] kept making the only thing he thought worth making: sense, a quality almost entirely lacking in American literature where stupidity – if sufficiently sincere and authentic – is deeply revered, and easily achieved.” (1980)

“[Edmund] Wilson notes, rather perfunctorily, friends and contemporaries. Scott Fitzgerald makes his usual appearances, and in his usual state. Once again we get the Hemingway-Wilson-Fitzgerald evening. ‘When Scott was lying in the corner on the floor, Hemingway said, Scott thinks that his penis is too small. (John Bishop had told me this and said that Scott was in the habit of making this assertion to anybody he met – to the lady who sat next to him at dinner and who might be meeting him for the firs time.) I explained to him, Hemingway continued, that it only seemed to him small because he looked at it from above. You have to look at it in the mirror. (I did not understand this.)’ I have never understood what Hemingway meant either. For one thing, Fitzgerald had obviously studied his diminutive part in a mirror. Even so, he would still be looking down at it unless, like a boy that I went to school with, he could so bend himself as to have an eye to eye, as it were, exchange with the Great American (Male) Obsession.” (1980)

“The fact is that Americans have never been able to deal with wit. Wit gives away the scam. Wit blows the cool of those who are forever expressing a sense of hoked-up outrage.” (1987)

“Class is the most difficult subject for American writers to deal with as it is the most difficult for the English to avoid.” (1987)

“There is a literary man who talks constantly of Jane Austen, whom he may not have read, and teaches at the League for Cultural Foundations (a.k.a. The New School), where ‘classes bulged with middle-aged students anxious to get an idea of what it would be like to have an idea.'” (1987)

“One might even say that those writers who are the most popular are the ones who hare the largest number of common assumptions with their audience, subliminally reflecting prejudices and aspirations so obvious that they are never stated and, never stated, never precisely understood or even recognized.” (1964)

“Burns was a gifted man who wrote a book far in excess of his gift, making a masterpiece that will endure in a way he himself could not.” (1965)

“The success of the gossip column is no more than a crude exploitation of newspaper addiction. Even if you don’t want to know what the Duchess of Windsor said to Elsa Maxwell or learn what stranger in the night was visited by Sir Stork, if your eye is addicted you will read on numbly.” (1961)

“Since we are essentially a nation of hustlers rather than makers, an attempt to set limits or goals, rules or standards, is to attack a system of free enterprise where not only does the sucker not deserve that even break but the honest man is simply the one whose cheating goes undetected. Worse, to say that one English sentence might be better made than another is to be a snob, a subverter of democracy, a Know Nothing enemy of the late arrivals to our shores and its difficult language.” (1974)

“It should be noted that one of the charms of the American arrangement is that a citizen can go through a lifetime and never know his true station in life or who his rulers are.” (1974)

“The word-structure novel is intended to be taught, rather like a gnostic text whose secrets may only be revealed by tenured adepts in sunless campus chapels.” (1979)

“For me, [Anthony] Burgess demonstrates, yet again, how uninteresting the sexual lives of others are when told by them.” (1987)

“Scott Fitzgerald, that most self-conscious of writers, made others conscious of himself and his crack-up through the pages known as The Crack-Up. Ever since then, American journalists and academics have used him as our paradigmatic Cautionary Tale on the ground that if you are young, handsome, talented, successful, and married to a beautiful woman, you will be destroyed because your life will be absolutely unbearable to those who teach and are taught. If, by some accident of fate, you are not destroyed, you will have a highly distressing old age like Somerset Maugham’s, which we will describe  in all its gamy incontenent horror. There is no winning, obviousy. But then the Greeks knew that.” (1985)

“Thirty-seven years ago, in March 1948, Tennessee Williams and I celebrated his thirty-seventh birthday in Rome, except that he said that it was his thirty-fourth birthday. Years later, when confronted with the fact that he had been born in 1911 not 1914, he said, serenely, “I do not choose to count as part of my life the three years I spend working for a shoe company.” Actually, he had spent ten months, not three years, in the shoe company, and the reason he had changed his birth date was to qualify for a play contest open to those twenty-five or under.” (1985)

“In Paris, [Tennessee Williams] gave me the story “Rubio y Morena” to read. I didn’t like it. So fix it, he said. He knew, of course, that there is no fixing someone else’s story (or life) but he was curious to see what I would do. So I reversed the backward-running sentences, removed repetitions, eliminated half those adjectives and adverbs that he always insisted do their work in pairs. I was proud of the result. He was deeply irritated. ‘What you have done is remove my style, which is all that I have.'” (1985)

“Since World War II, Italy has managed, with characteristic artistry, to create a society that combines a number of the least appealing aspects of socialism with practically all the vices of capitalism. This was not the work of a day. A wide range of political parties has contributed to the invention of modern Italy, a state whose vast metastasizing bureaucracy is the last living legacy anywhere on earth of the house of Bourbon (Spanish branch). In fact, the allegedly defunct Kingdom of the Two Sicilies has now so entirely engulfed the rest of the peninsula that the separation between Italian state and Italian people is nearly perfect.” (1979)

“The Italians have made the following trade-off with a nationa-state which none of them has ever much liked: if the state will not interfere too much in the lives of its citizens (that is, take most of their money in personal taxes), the people are willing to live without a proper postal serve, police force, medical care – all the usual amenities of a European industrialized society.” (1979)

“Montaigne begins his essays (first thought of as rhapsodies – confused melodies) with a pro forma bow to Cicero-Plato: ‘Cicero says that philosophizing is nothing other than getting ready to die. That is because study and contemplation draw our souls somewhat outside ourselves keeping them occupied away from the body, a state which both resembles death and which forms a kind of apprenticeship for it; or perhaps it is because all the wisdom and argument in the world eventually come down to one conclusion which is to teach us not to be afraid of dying.'” (1992)

[Quoting Montaigne} “Great heroes lived before Agamemnon. Many there were: yet none is lamented, being swept away unknown into the long night.” (1992)

“In response to public opinion, the Emperor Justinian made homosexuality a criminal offense on the grounds that buggery, as everyone knew, was the chief cause of earthquakes.” (1965)

“When the Cromwells fell, the disgruntled Puritans left England for Holland (not because they were persecuted for their religious beliefs but because they were forbidden to persecute others for their beliefs). Holland took them in, and promptly turned them out. Only North America was left. Here, as lords of the wilderness, they were free to create the sort of quasi-theocratic society they had dreamed of. Rigorously persecuting one another for religious heresies, witchcraft, sexual misbehavior, they formed that ugly polity whose descendants we are.” (1965)

“In desperation, the nation’s ownership has now gone back to the tried-and-true hot buttons: save our children, our fetuses, our ladies’ rooms from the godless enemy. As usual, the sex buttons have proved satisfyingly hot.” (1979)

“Most of us spend too much time solving international problems at cocktail parties, rather than tying up the loose ends of our own society.” (1961)

“…who now form the ‘silent majority’ – a phrase which that underestimated wit Richard Nixon took from Homer who used it to describe the dead.” (1970)

“In 1837, after President Jackson’s savage treatment of the Creeks and Cherokees, John Quincy [Adams] wrote: ‘We have done more harm to the Indians since our Revolution than had been done to them by the French and English nations before…These are crying sins for which we are answerable before a higher Jurisdiction.'” (1976)

“The public Lincoln has been as mythologized as the private Lincoln. As a congressman, he had opposed the 1846 war with Mexico – a nasty business, started by us in order to seize new territories. In a speech that was to haunt him thirteen years later, he declared, ‘Any people anywhere being inclined and having the power have the right to rise up and shake off the existing government, and form a new one that suits them better…Any portion of such people that can may revolutionize and make their own so much of the territory as they inhabit.’ When the South chose to follow Congressman Lincoln’s advice, President Lincoln said they could not go. When confronted with his 1848 declaration, he remarked, rather lamely, ‘You would hardly think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.'” (1981)

“For those of us inclined to the Jamesian stricture, a given scene ought to be observed by a single character, who can only know what he knows, which is often less than the reader.” (1991)

“The heart having its reason, Alice [Longworth] saw fit to conduct a long affair with the corrupt Senator William Borah, the so-called lion of Idaho, who had one roared, ‘I’d rather be right than president,’ causing my grandfather [Senator Thomas Gore, D-OK] to murmur, ‘Of course, he was neither.'” (1981)

“As Eleanor [Roosevelt] wrote in 1927, in a plainly autobiographical sketch,

She was an ugly little thing, keenly conscious of her deficiencies, and her father, the only person who really cared for her, was away much of the time; but he never criticized her or blamed her, instead he wrote her letters and stories, telling her how he dreamed of her growing up and what they would do together in the future, but she must be truthful, loyal, brave, well-educated, or the woman he dreamed of would not be there when the wonderful day came for them to fare forth together. The child was full of fears and because of them lying was easy; she had no intellectual stimulus at the time and yet she made herself as the years went on into a fairly good copy of the picture he painted.

As it turned out, Eleanor did not far forth with her father Elliott but with his cousin Franklin, and she was indeed all the things her father had wanted her to be, which made her marriage difficult but her life work great.” (1971)

“‘I [Eleanor Roosevelt] remember when Queen Wilhelmina came to visit during the war’ (good democrat that she was, nothing royal was alien to Eleanor) ‘ and she would sit under a tree on the lawn and commune with the dead. She would ever try to get  me interested in spiritualism but I always said: Since we’re going to be dead such a long time anyway it’s rather a waste of time chatting with all of them  before we get there.'” (1971)

” ‘Well,  my Franklin [Roosevelt] said, ‘We better have him down here’ – we were at Hyde Park – ‘ and see what he has to say.’ So Mr. [Joseph] Kennedy arrived at Rhinecliff on the train and I met him and took him straight to Franklin. Well, ten minutes later one of the aides came and said, ‘The President wants to see you right away.’ This was unheard of. So I [Eleanor Roosevelt] rushed  into the office and there was Franklin, white as a sheet. He asked Mr. Kennedy to step outside and then he said,  and his voice was shaking , ‘I never want to see that man again as long as I live.’ David Gray nodded: ‘Wanted us to make a deal with Hitler.’ But Eleanor was not going to get into that. ‘What it was, it was very bad. Then Franklin said, ‘Get him out of here,’ and I said, ‘But, dear, you’ve invited him for the weekend, and we’ve got guests for lunch and the train doesn’t leave until two,’ and Franklin said, ‘Then you drive him around Hyde Par and put him on that train,’ and I did and it was the most dreadful four hours of my life!’ She laughed. Then, seriously: ‘I wonder if the true  story of Joe Kennedy will ever be known.'” (1971)

“Now we live in a society none of us much likes, all would like to change, but no one knows how.” (1971)

“[H.L.] Mencken’s ideal popular paper for that vast public which ‘gets all its news by listening’ (today one would change ‘listening’ to ‘staring’ – at television), would be ‘printed throughout, as First Readers are printed, in words of one syllable. It should avoid every idea that is beyond the understanding of a bot of ten’ on the ground that ‘ all ideas are beyond them. They can grasp only events. But they will heed only those events that are presented as drama with one side clearly right and the other clearly wrong. They can no more imagine neutrality than they can imagine the fourth dimension.’ Thus, Mencken anticipates not only the television news programme but the television political campaign with its combative thirty-second spot commercials and sound-bites.” (1991)

“Even no, the Tory Mencken understood the roots of radicalism. Although ‘it is assumed that men become radicals because they are naturally criminal, or because they have been bribed by Russian gold,’ what actually moves them ‘is simply the conviction that the Government they suffer under is unbearably and incurably corrupt…The notion that a radical is one who hates his country is naïve and usually idiotic. He is, more likely, one who likes his country more than the rest of us, and is thus more disturbed than the rest of us when he sees it debauched. He is not a bad citizen turning to crime; he is a good citizen driven to despair.'” (1991)

“For the American there is no motherland or fatherland to be shared with others of his tribe, for the excellent reason that he has no tribe; all that he holds in common with other United Statesmen is something called ‘the American way of life,’ an economic system involving the constant purchase of consumer goods on credit to maintain a high standard of living involving the constant purchase, etc. But though this materialistic, even sybaritic ethos does far less damage in the world than old-fashioned tribalism, it fails to satisfy all sorts of atavistic yearnings. A man might gladly give his life for a totemlike the flag or the Cross, but who would give so much as a breath for a washing machine not yet paid for?” (1967)

“Like most empires, this one was the result of trouble at home.  With the settling of California, the frontier shut down and there was no place new to go, a matter of poignant concern to a nomadic and adventurous people.” (1967)

“For thirty or forty years I have seen the name Robert Moses on the front pages of newspapers or attached to articles in that graveyard of American prose the Sunday  New York Times Magazine section.” (1974)

“ITT then set about acquiring the Hartford Insurance Company, the biggest caper in their history thus far and as all major heists nowadays seem to do, it involved the 37th president whose eccentric notions of law (ignore it) and order (impose it) have to date been contained not by the Constitution or by the Congress or by the press but by his own eerie and rather touching propensity to fuck up.” (1973)

“There is of course some consolation in the fact that we are not wasting our billions weakening the moral fiber of the American yeoman by building him roads and schools, or by giving him medical care and decent housing. In public services, we lag behind all the industrialized nations of the West, preferring that the public money go not to the people but to big business. The result is a unique society in which we have free enterprise for the poor and socialism for the rich.” (1963)

“With the high cost of politics and image-making, it is plain that only the very wealthy or those allied with the very wealthy can afford the top prizes.” (1967)

“Finally, in an age of supercommunications , one must have a clear sense of the way things are, as opposed to the way they have been made to seem.” (1967)

“Julius Caesar stood before a statue of Alexander the Great and wept, for Alexander at twenty-nine had conquered the world and at thirty-two was dead, while Caesar, at late starter of thirty-three, had not yet subverted even his own state. Pascal, contemplating this poignant scene, remarked rather sourly that he could forgive Alexander for wanting to own the earth because of his extreme youth, but Caesar was old enough to have known better.” (1961)

“It is common to hear, ‘O.K., so a lot of [Barry Goldwater’s] ideas are cockeyed, but at least he tells you where he stands. He isn’t afraid to speak up, the way the other are.” (1961)

“By adding the third character to tragedy, Sophocles changed the nature of drama. By exalting the chorus and diminishing the actors, television has changed entirely the nature of our continuing history. Watching things as they happen, the viewer is a part of events in a way new to man. And never is he so much a part of the whole as when things do not happen, for , as Andy Warhol so wisely observed, people will always prefer to look at something rather than nothing; between plain wall and flickering commercial, the eyes will have the second. As hearth and fire were once center to the home or lair so now the television set is the center of modern man’s being, all points of the room converge upon its presence and the eye watches even as the mind dozes, much as our ancestors narcotized themselves with fire.” (1968)

“Nixon next paid careful tribute to his Republican competitors, to the platform and, finally, to Spiro Agnew ‘a statesman of the first rank who will be a great campaigner.'” (1968)

“If Nixon’s reputation as the litmus-paper man of American politics is deserved, his turning mauve instead of pink makes it plain that the affluent majority intend to do nothing at all in regard to the black and the poor and the aged, except repress with force their demonstrations, subscribing finally not so much to the bland hortatory generalities of the platform and the acceptance speech but to the past statements of the real Nixon who has said 1) ‘If the conviction rate was doubled in this country, it would do more to eliminate crime in the future than a quadrupling of the funds for any governmental war on poverty.’ 2) ‘I am opposed to pensions in any form, as it makes loafing more attractive to (sic) working.’ 3) To tie health care to social security ‘would set up a great state program which would inevitably head in the direction of herding the ill and elderly into institutions whether they desire this or not.’ (1968)

“When faced with a moral issue most American commentators simply ignore it – or as Elaine May said to Mike Nichols in one of their skits, ‘I like a moral issue so much more than a real issue.'” (1973)

“I cannot for the life of me see the value of continuing this administration another day in office. More to the point, I do not think that the American system in its present state of decadence is worth preserving. The initial success of the United States was largely accidental. A rich almost empty continent was occupied and exploited by rapacious Europeans who made slaves of Africans and corpses of Indians in the process. They created a Venetian-style republican based on limited suffrage and dedicated to the sacredness of property. Now the land is no longer rich enough to support the pretensions of the inhabitants. Institutions that once worked well enough for the major stockholders are no longer adequate to bear the burden of all our mistakes. Yet I am certain that a majority of my countrymen would like things to continue pretty much as they are. If they do, then their only hope is the prompt impeachment and dismissal of the president. A ritual scapegoat is needed to absolve our sins and Nixon has obligingly put his head on the block. Certainly to allow him to go free makes us all accomplices. It also brings to a swift end the brief, and by the world no doubt unlamented, American imperium.” (1973)

“Walter [Annenberg]’s most notorious intervention in politics came in 1966 when Milton SHapp ran for governor of Pennsylvania. Aside from being a Democrat, Shapp had a number of other serious demerits in Walter’s eyes. He owned an interest in a cable television firm in direct conflict with Triangle; worse, he had managed to stop Walter from slipping through the city council a motion to grant Triangle exclusive CATV rights for the city. Finally (and the reason Walter gave for the virulence of his opposition), Shapp ‘made his objection to the merger of the Pennsylvania and New York Central Railroads one of the principal campaign issues.’ This was too much for good Philadelphian Walter….It was too much. Consequently the  Inquirer outdid itself in what a political observer at the time termed ‘character assassination.’ Every trick in the book was used, including what is sometimes referred to as ‘ The Best Man caper’; hint that the candidate is not right in the head. An  Inquirer reporter asked Shapp if it was true that he’d sue should the paper print that he’d ever been in a mental home. Having never been in a loony bin, Shapp quite naturally said, yes, he would sue. Next day’s headlines: SHAPP DENIES EVERY HAVING BEEN IN A MENTAL HOME. After the campaign the general public learned that the largest individual stockholder in the Pennsylvania Railroad was Walter Annenberg.” (1970)

“As individuals, the presidents are accidental; but as types, they are inevitable and represent, God help us, us. We are Nixon; he is us.” (1983)

“Like ever good and bad American, Nixon knows almost no history of any kind.” (1983)

“To govern is to choose how the revenue raised from taxes is spent. So far so good, or bad. But some people earn more money than others. Should they pay proportionately more money to the government than those who earn less? And if they do pay more money are they entitled to more services than those who pay less or those who pay nothing at all? And should those who pay nothing at all because they have nothing get anything? These matters are of irritable concern to our rulers, and of some poignancy to the rest.  Although the equality of each citizen before the law is the rock upon which the American Constitution rests, economic equality has never been an American ideal. In fact, it is the one unmentionable subject in our politics, as the Senator from South Dakota [George McGovern] recently discovered when he came up with a few quasi-egalitarian tax reforms. The furious and enduring terror of communism in America is not entirely the work of those early cold warriors Truman and Acheson. A dislike of economic equality is something deep-grained in the American Protestant character. After all, given a rich empty continent for vigorous Europeans to exploit (the Indians were simply a disagreeable part of the emptiness, like chiggers), any man of gumption could make himself a good living.  With extra hard work, any man could make himself a fortune, proving that he was a better man than the rest. Long before Darwin the American ethos was Darwinian.” (1972)

“To maintain its grip on the nation, the Property Party must keep actual issues out of political debate. So far they have succeeded marvelously well. Faced with unemployment, Nixon will oppose abortion. Inflation? Marijuana is a halfway house to something worse. The bombing of North Vietnam? Well, pornographers are sing the mailing lists of Cub Scouts.” (1972)

“Our armed forces have been, literally, demoralized by what we have done to them in using them for unjust ends.” (1975)

“The myth of upward social mobility dies hard; but it dies. Working-class parents produce children who will be working-class while professional people produce more professionals. Merit has little to do with one’s eventual place in the hierarchy. We are now locked into a class system nearly as rigid as the one that the Emperor Diocletian impressed upon the Roman empire.” (1975)

“Here are two comments  not to be found in any American public-school book. Thomas Jefferson: “The day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the Supreme Being as his father, in the womb of a virgin, will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter.” John Adams (in a letter to Jefferson): “Twenty times, in the course of my late reading, have I been on the point of breaking out. ‘This would be the best of all possible worlds, if there was no religion in it.'” (1980)

“Although the National Advisory Commission on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals declared in 1973 that ‘prisons should be repudiated as useless for any purpose other than locking away people who are too dangerous to be allowed at large in a free society,’ there are plans to build more and more prisons to brutalize more and more people who are, for the most part, harmless.” (1980)

“In the United States there are two political parties of equal size. One is the party that votes in presidential elections. The other is the party that does not vote in presidential elections.” (1980)

“Our ancestors did not like paying taxes on their tea; we do not like paying taxes on our houses, traditionally the only form of capital that the average middle-class American is allowed to accumulate.” (1981)

“The general tone [of the Federalist Papers] is that of a meeting of the trust department of Sullivan and Cromwell.” (1981)

“In the convention debates, Hamilton took on the romantic notion of the People: ‘The voice of the people has been said to be the voice of God; and however generally this maxim has been quoted and believed, it is not true in fact. The people are turbulent and changing; they seldom judge or determine right. Give therefore to [the rich and wellborn] a distinct, permanent share in the government.’ The practical old Tory Gouverneur Morris took the same view, though he expressed himself rather more serenely than the fierce young man on the make: ‘The rich will strive to establish their dominion and enslave the rest. They always did. They always will. The proper security against them is to form them into a separate interest.’ Each was arguing for a Senate of lifetime appointees, to be chosen by the state legislatures for the best and the richest. It is curious that neither envisioned political parties as the more natural way of balancing economic interests.” (1981)

“Since Jefferson’s teeth were set on edge by the word property, the euphemism ‘pursuit of happiness’ had been substituted in the Declaration of Independence. Much pleased with this happy phrase, Jefferson recommended it highly to the Marquis de Lafayette when we was Rights of Man-ing it in France.” (1981)

“Thomas Jefferson thought that there should be a constitutional convention at least once a generation because ‘laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths disclosed, and manners and opinions change with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times. We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him as a boy, as a civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors.’ Jefferson would be amazed to see how the boy’s jacket of his day has now become the middle-aged man’s strait-jacket of ours.” (1981)

“I felt particularly sorry for the media when a former president named Eisenhower, reading a speech with his usual sense of discovery, attacked the press, and the [1964 Republican] convention hall went mad. At last Ike was giving it to those commie-weirdo-Jew-fags who did not believe in the real America of humming electric chairs, well-packed prisons, and kitchens filled with every electrical device that a small brown person of extranational provenance might successfully operate at a fraction of the legal minimum wage.” (1983)

“I had never actually spoken to [Ronald Reagan] at a party because I knew – as who did not? – that although he was the soul of amiability when not excoriating the international monolithic menace of atheistic godless communism, he was, far and away, Hollywood’s most grinding bore – Chester Chatterbox, in fact. Ronnie never stopped talking, even though he never had anything to say except what he had just read in the Reader’s Digest, which eh studied the way that Jefferson did Montesquieu.” (1983)

“Meanwhile, Edith [Luckett, mother of Nancy Reagan] had found Mr. Right, Loyal Davis, M.D., F.A.C.S, a brain surgeon of pronounced reactionary politics and a loathing of the lesser breeds, particularly those of a dusky hue.” (1983)

“This world is simply a used-up Kleenex, as Reagan’s secretary of the interior, James Watt, acknowledged when he scorned the environmentalists with the first hint of what was in the works: ‘I do not know,’ he said to Congress in 1981, ‘how many future generations we can count on before the Lord returns.’ So why conserve anything, if Judgment Day is at hand?” (1987)

“Wars of the sort that the Four Horsemen enjoyed are, if no longer possible, no longer practical. Today’s conquests are shifts of currency by computer and the manufacture of those things that people everywhere are willing to buy.” (1986)

“When Confucius was asked what would be the first thing that he would do if he were to lead the state – his never-to-be fulfilled dream – he said rectify the language. This is wise. This is subtle. As societies grow decadent, the language grows decadent, too. Words are used to disguise, not to illuminate, action: You liberate a city by destroying it. Words are used to confuse, so that at election time people will solemnly vote against their own interests.” (1986)

“I seldom watch television. But when I do set out to twirl the dial, it is usually on a Sunday, when our corporate rulers address us from their cathode pulpit. Seedy Washington journalists, sharp-eyed government officials who could no dispose of a brand-new car in Spokane, think-tank employees, etiolated from too long residence ‘neath flat rocks, and always, always, Henry Kissinger, whose destruction of so many Asians and their once-charming real estate won him a prize for peace from the ironists of northern Europe.” (1989)

“The next two champ guests, weighing in at twelve appearances each [on Nightline], were the mendacious Elliott Abrams (Koppel assumes that although Abrams will lie to Congress, he won’t lie to Koppel) and Jerry Falwell, a certified voice of God whose dolorous appearance suggests a deep, almost personal grief that the Thirteenth and Fourteenth Amendments to the Constitution are not yet repealed.” (1989)

“The Reverend Malthus is often revived in order to show how wrong he was with his formula that population increase in a geometrical ratio, food in an arithmetical one; hence, the first must outgrow the second. So far it has not, but in order to feed so many, the damage to air, earth and water has been catastrophic.” (1989)

“Although we are not allowed, under law, to kill ourselves or to take drugs that the good folk think might be bad for us, we are allowed to buy a handgun and shoot as many people as we can get away with.” (1992)

“They have convinced us that we are a classless society in which anyone can make it. Ninety percent of the stories in the pop press are about winners of lotteries or poor boys and girls who, despite adenoidal complaints, become overnight millionaire singers. So there is still hope, the press tells the folks, for the 99 percent who will never achieve wealth no matter how hard they work. We are also warned at birth that it is not polite to hurt people’s feelings by criticizing their religion, even if that religion may be damaging everyone through the infiltration of our common laws.” (1992)

“In 1946 and 1947 Europe was still out-of-bounds for foreigners. But by 1948 the Italians had begun to pull themselves together, demonstrating once more their astonishing ability to cope with disaster which is so perfectly balanced by their absolute inability to deal with success.” (1976)

“Orson’s conversation was often surreal and always cryptic. Either you picked up on it or you were left out. At one point, he asked me to intervene on his behalf with Johnny Carson because there had been a ‘misunderstanding’ between them and he was no longer asked to go on The Tonight Show and his lecture fees had, presumably, plummeted. I intervened. Carson was astonished. There was no problem that he knew of. I reported this to Orson in the course of one of our regular lunches at a French restaurant in Hollywood where Orson always sat in a vast chair to the right of the door. There was a smaller chair for a totally unprincipled small black poodle called Kiki.

‘There is more to this than Johnny will ever tell you,’ he rumbled. ‘Much, much more. Why,’ he turned to the waiter with cold eyes, ‘ do you keep bringing me a menu when you know what I must eat? Grilled fish.’ The voice boomed throughout the room. ‘And iced tea. How I hate grilled fish! But doctor’s orders. I’ve lost twenty pounds. No one ever believes this. But then no one ever believes I hardly eat anything.’ He was close to four hundred pounds at the time of our last lunch in 1982. He wore bifurcated tents to which, rather idly, lapels, pocket flaps, buttons were attached in order to suggest a conventional suit. He hated the fat jokes that he was obliged to listen to – on television at least – with a merry smile and an insouciant retort or two, carefully honed in advance.  When I asked him why he didn’t have the operation that vacuums the fat out of the body, he was gleeful. “Because I have seen the results of liposuction when the operation goes wrong. It happened to a woman I know. First, they insert the catheter in the abdomen, subcutaneously.’ Orson was up on every medical procedure. ‘The suction begins and the fat – it looks like yellow chicken fat. You must try the chicken here. But then the fat – hers not the chicken’s – came out unevenly. And so where once had been a Ruebenesque torso, there was now something all hideously rippled and valleyed and canyoned like the moon.’ He chuckled and, as always, I wondered what I’d do were he to drop dead of a stroke.” (1989)

 

 

 

 

The Mandate of Meh

According to the Philadelphia City Commissioners, just over 300,000 people voted in the election last week, out of just over one million registered voters.  A turnout rate of 28.5%.  The headlines are, once again, digesting the somewhat intriguing but not essentially different results this time around, but the message is arguably just the opposite – more of the same indifference, more of the same meh.  Mayor Kenney, who remains admirably consistent in being disliked by all parties, received 230,000 votes.  An increase of about 30,000 from the election four years ago, but I think we can safely attribute this turnout in part to an (at least!) growing population – we have gained roughly 10,000-20,000 people if my rough estimates of Census data are right – as well as the much-discussed wave of discontent generated by federal shenanigans.  But the story of this swell covers the fact that the next four years of Kenney were brought about by barely 23% of the city – this is not a wave of enthusiasm.

Brexit has thankfully diminished in international headlines now that the Brits have at last opted for an election one month from tomorrow.  But many of the latest rounds of criticism, beginning from Johnson’s capture of the premiership, rested on the undemocratic manner in which 65 million people were being steered by the votes of 160,000 members of the Conservative Party.  Johnson won almost twice as many ballots as the next place contender, which at best gave him around 105,000 votes – that is, 0.17% of the country elected the man who at least for a time would run it.  The volume of Brexit analysis makes it clear this analysis is shallow at best and ignores other parts of the machinery of government, as well as all that came before to set the stage for this event, but I think the idea is the same – critical issues became remote from regular people.  For Philadelphia, we are dealing only with a local level election, and 23% is worlds away from 0.17%, but I think the idea holds.  We feel remote from government, and despite the supposedly “populist” bandwagoning in the Democratic Party, differing verses from the opposing sides of the party in Philadelphia still lead to the same chorus – mediocrity.  Only having 0.17% of voters choose a leader seems outright undemocratic, but only 28% of potential voters choosing to exercise their right suggests to me a real lack of belief in change.

And why should they?  It’s a one-party state, and not even a well-functioning one like Singapore.  The Democratic machine continues to be well-oiled, but it’s a machine like the steam engines we used to built here – powerful, even elegant in its way, but in the wrong century.  While the party elders mutter about discipline in the midst of a third-party candidate, they don’t give a thought to denouncing a federally indicted Councilmember – in fact, they endorse him.  Predictions around the next mayor make mention of the Northwest Coalition and in the same breath mention the centrality of former-Congressman and current-convict Chaka Fattah.  Tax abatements and gentrification crop up again and again, even though the additional taxes repealing the abatement would raise would lift the budget by less than $100 million a year from a budget in excess of $3 billion, while recent Federal Reserve papers on gentrification put paid to any notion that it deserves to be demonized as some kind of new “red line” policy.  Perhaps Philadelphia’s inability to pass its own laws is, in part, responsible for the endless repetition of ideas and laws our leaders would like to enact but the state’s forest of pre-emption laws prohibit.  If we could raise our own minimum wage or property tax, or indeed find other ways to implement policy that diverged more strongly from that which the state allows, things might be different.  Alas for the egalitarianism of Quakers!

Pennsylvania Constitution, Article VIII

§ 1.  Uniformity of taxation.
All taxes shall be uniform, upon the same class of subjects,
within the territorial limits of the authority levying the tax,
and shall be levied and collected under general laws.

Perhaps the repetitious sloganeering is no different than the to-and-fro pacing of large animals behind the bars at a zoo – trapped as they are, that’s the closest they can come to meaningful movement and action.  Something is better than nothing.

And yet I can’t help but feel that there is too much willingness to settle.  I support many of the ideals behind the headlines, but I also rebel at dishonestly hiding behind platforms that simply can’t become reality.  There’s nothing wrong with stating an ideal, but hiding behind it is the sort of political cowardice that gets us nowhere.  Admit that, as much as the School District of Philadelphia deserves more funding, Harrisburg controls half the budget and refuses to budget on a per pupil basis for the state’s basic education subsidy.  Admit that gentrification is used to scare people unnecessarily, and give more resources to L&I and urban planning resources to ensure equitable development without arbitrarily deciding who gets to live where.  Stop talking about a static poverty rate and, if you can’t do anything on education, at least overhaul the tax system to make it easier to start and grow companies in Philadelphia, because jobs are the best way out of poverty.  Stop bowing down to unions and do what’s best for all of us, not just those who have a collective bargaining agreement.  (On which topic, I believe many of the contracts are up for renewal next year – I don’t know how substantial any negotiations are expected to be, but something worth watching.)

So, four more years of meh.  I’ll be watching with, if not bated breath, hopefully at least no sighs of exasperation.

Elections, Elections

Yesterday was election day in America, and so too in our city betwixt D.C. and New York.  Amid breathless coverage of the race for governor of Kentucky and the Virginia state legislature, the  New York Times deigned to add Philadelphia’s mayoral race, a state-wide referendum on a constitutional amendment already in place in other states, and a judicial race to its list of items to cover.  Anyone who thinks the Philadelphia mayoral race is competitive is out of their reckoning, the amendment was neither here nor there, and the democratic election of judges continues to be a headscratcher, so clearly the Times was opting to leave the consequential matters of local import to local coverage.  Fair enough, except the locals being what they are, this morning’s headlines were dominated by speculation on who will run for Mayor in 2023 rather than reviews of particularly close races, re-election of a federally indicted Councilman, statistical reviews of voting patterns, or potential impacts of updated procurement procedures.  Not all was lost, however – given Philadelphia’s blessed “resign to run” provisions, we at least learned that the re-elected Mayor may leave office early to run for governor, while a bevy of Councilmembers will necessarily resign to run for mayor.

This being a Democratic city, the general election is usually a time of calm reflection awaiting the voters to pull the lever (or in this case, touch the screen on our new voting machines) on the city committee’s chosen ticket.  But the insurgent progressive wing of the party was determined to unseat the Republicans, which would have ruffled no feathers but for the fact that one of the Democrats, Helen Gym, broke ranks to endorse one of those running for office under the banner of the Working Families Party.  The Democratic City Committee, always suspicious of generating more jobs and income lest this lead to more education and so voters who think for themselves or their own interests, used this as an opportunity to call the troops to arms.  This internal conflict must be put down, they said, by raising more money!  Donate, so that I can drown out the texts and robocalls with my own advertisements – we shall blanket the city in ads for the establishment!  As it turned out, one Working Family member (a sibling?) was elected to Council, while one Republican, David Oh, kept his seat.

Internecine Democratic squabbling aside, our coming Council session – T-minus two months! – could be quite interesting given the terminus of the Kenney regime and the need to stake out a space for oneself.  The yakking about progressive causes will necessarily continue until a year from today, but I wonder if Council, which will now have 14 Democrats, 2 Republicans, and 1 Working Sibling, will turn its attention to matters beyond tax abatements and unenforceable resolutions about wages.  Will tax reform get done?  Will anyone take an interest in the spending increases and ensure they are justified or we receive value for money?  I will do a detailed follow up pursuing this line of questioning at a later time (I hope) but I noticed the Inquirer ran a piece showing the $1 billion increase in spending under the Kenney administration.  In terms of how deeply the piece probed it was more like a shot of Botox than a vivisection – it cited a few seven-figure programs but didn’t dig into the meat behind the ballooning budget.  I presume tax receipts are up – long may it last – but the praise of the city putting some $30 million into a rainy day fund for the first time ever (ever?!) came off as something of a golf clap, polite but by no means truly excited.

Then again, my own complaints are starting to smack of the familiar rote I hear elsewhere and aren’t sufficiently fact-enforced.  I want to dig into the budgets of the Kenney administration, with particular attention to:

  1.  Overall budget growth and attribution of where that growth is going
  2.  Pension costs and funding, including key details like the assumed discount rate
  3.  If past performance targets have been met and if future estimates or goals are likely to be met

My oft-repeated phrase is that the city seems on a precipice, whether it wants to be or not.  Philadelphia can break towards Baltimore, Detroit, and Chicago, or it can try to aim for New York, Boston, and other high-performers.  A simple glance at the most recent budget projections show no inclusion of a recession for the next five years and revenue growing at 3% or more.  I hope we meet those targets, but I want to be forearmed if (when) things take a turn for the worse.  Hopefully the results of next year’s federal elections will mean an injection of federal tax dollars, but until then it’s best to learn how we can expect to perform on our own.

Celebrity

A lovely line in a piece reviewing several books on celebrity.  I always think of Ricky Gervais’ comment of people “living their life like an open wound.”  The quote here reflect more on the audience, which is of course even more essential to the whole project. “Sit still for a couple of hours watching…and you’ll turn into an inveterate voyeur and spend the rest of your days as a restless, tormented spirit wandering through the arid wastelands of other people’s lives.”  The quote actually refers not to one of our more recent celebrity incarnations (the Kardashians loom always in the background) but to the 1991 documentary about Madonna’s world tour.  The attraction and revulsion – pick your poison – are here to stay.

Unmasked

There were only two things Donald Trump said, back when he was campaigning for the presidency, that I agreed with.  A case of a blind squirrel finding a nut, perhaps, but it’s still true.  The two items were: NATO allies should be maintaining their 2% of GDP defense spending obligations (which none save, I believe, Estonia, has done for decades) and Chinese theft of American intellectual property combined with centrally-planned economic shenanigans required a serious set of conversations, negotiations, and – if it came to that – actions.

Trump has demonstrated his inadequacies but the underlying issues remain, and as far as the ongoing Chinese tariff war goes, I’ve been paying careful attention to Hong Kong.  My sympathies lie entirely with the protestors.  One country, two systems is not tenable, as David Webb among others had written about so articulately.  Watching the videos of the protestors continuing efforts to resist the machinations of Beijing and their stooge-appointee Carrie Lam feels to me like watching the whole balance of power in the Pacific Rim.  So it came as an unpleasant surprise this morning when the long-stalemated battle had an escalation as Carrie Lam announced she would use her emergency powers under a colonial-era law (a moniker that is strangely laden with antipathy towards the West, even as protestors would clearly prefer to keep their British legal structure) to ban the wearing of masks.

Anyone who has seen the news coverage knows that the Hong Kong protestors almost universally are wearing surgical masks (commonly used in Asia in public by those who may be sick in order to not pass on germs – so polite!), bandanas, or even gas masks and respirators to get them through the tear gas-laden encounters with the police.  While most of the headlines I saw viewed this as a tool that would make tear gas more effective, surely the more pressing issue here is facial recognition.  Already protestors had grown wary of police efforts to identify them via their phone – many people were disabling facial and fingerprint-based unlocking features so that, when arrested by the authorities, their phones (and subsequently their whole lives) could not be easily used accessed.  China’s surveillance state is far more sophisticated than that, however, and surely a law that bans the use of masks will allow the country’s deep and powerful surveillance state to go to work identifying the protestors.  It is critical to remember that the bill that so inflamed the passions of the people of Hong Kong and led to these months of protests was an extradition bill, allowing Hong Kongers to be taken to the mainland for trial.  This ups the stakes.  Those protesting the bill, if they were to give in to the threat of this new action, would be able to be taken to the mainland and prosecuted for their part in the protests based on the images of their past participation (assuming the bill was made into law, which Beijing no doubt still wants done.)

Putting myself in the protestors boots, this is quite frightening.  I can remain masked and violate the law, allowing them to arrest, prosecute, and jail or fine me – thereby discovering my identity – or I can take the mask off, allowing China’s surveillance state to take note and presumably penalize me via the horrifying social credit system, and potentially extradite me in the event the law is passed.  Rock and a hard place, indeed.

My outrage at this situation was immediately interrupted as I learned that anti-mask laws are quite common in the West, including the United States.  Such laws were the basis for arresting many of the Occupy Wall Street (remember them?) protestors, not my favorite group of people.  Then again, the same law was used to ban a march by the Ku Klux Klan or some related white supremacy group on the grounds that the cowards were to march in mask, as wonderful use of such an obscure law as can be.

And so I find myself in an unexpected spot as I root for the Hong Kong protestors but also see the rationale behind such a law.  The American law apparently dates to 1845, when tenant farmers of the New York patroons would don masks to attack the authorities in protest of their feudalistic subordination, which provides both a rough parallel of what we see today (in the people vs. law sense – Hong Kong protestors are not attacking police officers) but also an indication of how today’s surveillance technology is beyond the imagination of the lawmakers that drafted such laws originally.  The ideal scenario, in my mind, would have strong restrictions on how governments could collect and use images in order to defang this catch-22 – but of course, in China, there are no civil liberties, no rule of law, no arbiter other than Xi Jinping, and so this hope is stillborn.  If going masked is the only solution to the proliferation of imaging technology – be it in the hands of the government or the phone of the person next to you – what does that do to civil society?  While pseudonyms and anonymity have key roles to play (the Federalist papers, whistleblower protection) we also see that the anonymity of the digital world creates a morass of uncivil engagement and bad behavior.

Can the underlying justice of the cause be the guiding principle here?  Wearing a mask does not carry a death sentence.  If Hong Kong were to implement this law, I imagine there would be more offenders than the jails could hold.  Does it become a simple act of civil disobedience, a mild misdemeanor whose punishment is outweighed by the ongoing attention the act draws to the cause?  Will there be, in some horrible worst case scenario, a protestor who willingly puts their head in the lion’s jaws by being extradited to China to face down the penalty of their mask wearing, or their part in the protests if they decide to take the mask off?  All this points to a much longer road for the Hong Kong protestors as they battle to slow the erosion of their liberties and perhaps wait for China to rise to their own moral level, rather than be dragged down to that of the mainland.  My thoughts lie with them, and am fortunate that I feel no need to hide my support for them in their brave struggle.

(…though this blog’s anonymity perhaps diminishes the bravery of that last line!)